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planning-framework

@5MinFutures/futures-arena
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Apply structured thinking before coding. Use when: starting new features, making architectural decisions, refactoring large components, or evaluating implementation approaches. Includes Musk's 5-step algorithm and ICE scoring framework.

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SKILL.md


name: planning-framework description: Apply structured thinking before coding. Use when: starting new features, making architectural decisions, refactoring large components, or evaluating implementation approaches. Includes Musk's 5-step algorithm and ICE scoring framework.

Planning Framework

When to Use

Before starting ANY significant coding task:

  • New features (> 50 lines of code)
  • Refactoring existing components
  • Architectural changes
  • Debugging complex issues

Musk's 5-Step Algorithm

Step 1: Make Requirements Less Dumb

Question everything:

  • Who requested this feature? Why?
  • What problem does it actually solve?
  • Is there a simpler way to achieve the same outcome?
  • What happens if we don't build this?

Portfolio Buddy 2 Example:

Request: "Add sortable columns to metrics table"

Questions:

  • Why? Users want to find best/worst performing strategies quickly
  • Simpler solution? Just default sort by Sharpe Ratio (most important metric)
  • Alternative? Add "Top 3" and "Bottom 3" highlight sections

Decision: Implemented full multi-column sorting via useSorting hook because:

  • Different users care about different metrics (Sharpe vs Sortino vs Max DD)
  • Sorting is O(n log n) - negligible for <100 strategies
  • Reusable hook can be used in future tables

Step 2: Delete the Part or Process

What can we eliminate?

  • Remove features that serve no clear purpose
  • Cut unnecessary steps in workflows
  • Simplify data structures
  • Delete unused dependencies

Rule: If you don't add back 10% of what you deleted, you didn't delete enough.

Portfolio Buddy 2 Example:

Discovery: Recharts library (11.5KB) installed but never imported

Questions:

  • Is it used anywhere? NO - search reveals zero imports
  • Why was it installed? Probably initial plan, switched to Chart.js
  • Can we delete it? YES - nothing depends on it

Action: npm uninstall recharts (saves 11.5KB in bundle)

Result: Cleaner dependency tree, faster installs, smaller bundle

Step 3: Simplify or Optimize

Only after deleting:

  • Simplify remaining code
  • Extract reusable functions
  • Improve type safety
  • Reduce complexity

Portfolio Buddy 2 Example:

Problem: PortfolioSection.tsx is 591 lines (3x the 200-line limit)

Before Optimization:

function PortfolioSection() {
  // 50 lines of contract multiplier logic
  // 40 lines of date filtering logic
  // 100 lines of Chart.js configuration
  // 80 lines of statistics calculations
  // 300+ lines of JSX rendering
}

After Simplification:

// Extract hooks
const portfolio = usePortfolio(files, dateRange)
const contracts = useContractMultipliers(strategies)

// Extract components
<ContractControls {...contracts} />
<EquityChartSection data={portfolio.equity} />
<PortfolioStats metrics={portfolio.metrics} />

Result: Main component < 100 lines, logic encapsulated, reusable

Step 4: Accelerate Cycle Time

  • Reduce build/test time
  • Improve developer experience
  • Add helpful error messages
  • Optimize feedback loops

Portfolio Buddy 2 Example:

Before: Create React App build time: ~30 seconds

Action: Migrated to Vite

After: Vite build time: ~2 seconds (15x faster)

Impact: Developer can iterate 15x more per hour

Step 5: Automate

Last step only - automate what's proven necessary.

Portfolio Buddy 2 Example:

Don't automate yet: CI/CD pipeline

  • Manual Cloudflare deployments work fine for now
  • Only deploying 2-3x per month
  • Setting up GitHub Actions would take 2-4 hours
  • Wait until deployment frequency increases

Should automate: TypeScript checking on commit

  • Would catch any type violations before merge
  • Git pre-commit hook: tsc --noEmit
  • Saves debugging time later

ICE Scoring Framework

Evaluate solutions using:

  • Impact: How much does this move the needle? (1-10)
  • Confidence: How certain are we this will work? (1-10)
  • Ease: How simple to implement? (1-10)

ICE Score = (Impact × Confidence × Ease) / 10

Portfolio Buddy 2 Examples

Example 1: Error Boundaries (High Priority)

Feature: Add React error boundaries around risky components

  • Impact: 7 (prevents full app crashes from component errors)
  • Confidence: 9 (standard React pattern, well-documented)
  • Ease: 8 (wrapper component + fallback UI, ~50 lines)
  • ICE Score: (7 × 9 × 8) / 10 = 50.4HIGH PRIORITY

Decision: Should implement soon. Quick win, high impact.

Example 2: Export to Excel (Medium-High Priority)

Feature: Add Excel export button for metrics table

  • Impact: 8 (users explicitly requested it)
  • Confidence: 8 (libraries like xlsx exist, proven solution)
  • Ease: 7 (format data, generate file, trigger download)
  • ICE Score: (8 × 8 × 7) / 10 = 44.8HIGH PRIORITY

Decision: Worth implementing. Clear user value, reasonable effort.

Example 3: Refactor PortfolioSection (Medium Priority)

Feature: Split 591-line component into smaller pieces

  • Impact: 6 (improves maintainability, no user-facing change)
  • Confidence: 8 (clear extraction points identified)
  • Ease: 4 (tedious, 4-6 hours, risk of breaking things)
  • ICE Score: (6 × 8 × 4) / 10 = 19.2MEDIUM PRIORITY

Decision: Important for code health, but not urgent. Do after user-facing features.

Example 4: Real-time Price Updates via WebSocket (Low Priority)

Feature: Live market data updates in charts

  • Impact: 6 (nice to have, but app analyzes historical data)
  • Confidence: 5 (complex integration, data source needed)
  • Ease: 3 (WebSocket setup, state management, error handling)
  • ICE Score: (6 × 5 × 3) / 10 = 9LOW PRIORITY

Decision: Skip for now. Doesn't fit core use case (historical analysis).

Example 5: Remove Recharts Dependency (Quick Win)

Feature: Uninstall unused Recharts library

  • Impact: 3 (small bundle size reduction, cleaner deps)
  • Confidence: 10 (confirmed never imported anywhere)
  • Ease: 10 (one command: npm uninstall recharts)
  • ICE Score: (3 × 10 × 10) / 10 = 30MEDIUM PRIORITY

Decision: Easy quick win. Do it next time touching package.json.

Example 6: Sortino Ratio Calculation (Completed)

Feature: Add Sortino Ratio metric (already completed)

  • Impact: 8 (important risk-adjusted metric for traders)
  • Confidence: 9 (well-defined formula, similar to Sharpe)
  • Ease: 7 (calculation + UI + risk-free rate input)
  • ICE Score: (8 × 9 × 7) / 10 = 50.4HIGH PRIORITY

Result: Successfully implemented in commits 258ba3a & 9f25040.

ICE Score Interpretation

ICE Score Range Priority Action
40+ High Do soon, within 1-2 sprints
25-39 Medium-High Plan for next 2-3 sprints
15-24 Medium Backlog, do when capacity available
10-14 Low Consider if very easy or strategic
< 10 Very Low Probably skip unless requirements change

Planning Checklist

Before coding:

  • Applied Step 1: Questioned requirements thoroughly
  • Applied Step 2: Identified what can be deleted/simplified
  • Calculated ICE score (for features > 100 lines)
  • Confirmed simpler solution doesn't exist
  • Identified which components/hooks will be affected
  • Checked for existing similar functionality in codebase
  • Reviewed related code to understand context

After planning:

  • Written approach in 3-5 bullet points
  • Identified potential issues/edge cases
  • Estimated time realistically (multiply initial guess by 2)
  • Confirmed TypeScript types are planned (no any)
  • Verified component won't exceed 200 lines

Portfolio Buddy 2 Planning Examples

Example: Adding Sortino Ratio (Completed Feature)

Step 1 - Requirements:

  • Users need Sortino Ratio alongside Sharpe Ratio
  • Sortino focuses on downside risk (more relevant for traders)
  • Requires risk-free rate input

Step 2 - Delete:

  • Don't need separate page for advanced metrics
  • Don't need tutorial/help text (formula is standard)

Step 3 - Simplify:

  • Add single risk-free rate input (not per-strategy)
  • Calculate in existing calculateMetrics() function
  • Add column to existing MetricsTable

ICE Score: 50.4 (High Priority)

Approach:

  1. Add calculateSortino() to dataUtils.ts
  2. Include Sortino in metrics calculation
  3. Add risk-free rate input to PortfolioSection
  4. Add Sortino column to MetricsTable
  5. Test with sample data

Time Estimate: 3-4 hours

Result: Completed successfully, but found calculation bug (commit 9f25040 fixed it).

Implementation Note: Sortino was implemented inline in PortfolioSection.tsx (lines 133-158) rather than in dataUtils.ts. This decision was made because:

  • Sortino requires portfolio-level daily returns (not trade-level metrics)
  • Needs user input state (risk-free rate)
  • Different calculation context than win rate, profit factor, etc.
  • Team should discuss whether to extract to dataUtils for consistency

Example: Refactoring PortfolioSection (Future Work)

Step 1 - Requirements:

  • Component is 591 lines (3x limit)
  • Hard to maintain and understand
  • Want to follow coding standards

Step 2 - Delete:

  • Review for duplicate logic
  • Remove commented-out code
  • Consolidate similar state handlers

Step 3 - Simplify:

  • Extract ContractControls.tsx (contract multiplier UI)
  • Extract EquityChartSection.tsx (Chart.js config)
  • Extract PortfolioStats.tsx (statistics display)
  • Keep only orchestration in main component

ICE Score: 19.2 (Medium Priority)

Approach:

  1. Create EquityChartSection component (150 lines)
  2. Create PortfolioStats component (80 lines)
  3. Create ContractControls component (100 lines)
  4. Refactor main PortfolioSection to <100 lines
  5. Test all functionality still works

Time Estimate: 4-6 hours (tedious but straightforward)

Risks:

  • Breaking existing functionality
  • Props drilling if not careful
  • Testing all edge cases

Decision: Medium priority. Do after more urgent user-facing features.

Example: Vitest Testing Setup (Future Work)

Step 1 - Requirements:

  • No tests currently
  • Critical calculations need testing (Sharpe, Sortino, correlation)
  • Prevent regressions in metric calculations

Step 2 - Delete:

  • Don't need 100% coverage
  • Skip UI/component testing for now
  • Focus only on calculation functions

Step 3 - Simplify:

  • Test only dataUtils.ts functions
  • Use Vitest (built-in with Vite)
  • Mock data from real CSV files

ICE Score: 24 (Medium Priority)

Approach:

  1. Install Vitest: npm install -D vitest
  2. Add test script to package.json
  3. Create dataUtils.test.ts
  4. Write tests for critical calculations
  5. Run tests in CI eventually

Time Estimate: 6-8 hours (learning curve + writing tests)

Tests to Write:

  • calculateSharpe() with known data
  • calculateSortino() with known data
  • calculateCorrelation() edge cases
  • parseCSV() error handling

Red Flags to Watch For

During Planning

  • ❌ "This will only take 30 minutes" (usually takes 2-3 hours)
  • ❌ "I'll just use any types for now" (technical debt accumulates)
  • ❌ "We might need this later" (YAGNI - You Aren't Gonna Need It)
  • ❌ "Everyone does it this way" (verify it fits your use case)

During Implementation

  • ❌ Component approaching 200 lines (refactor NOW, not later)
  • ❌ Duplicating logic from another file (extract to shared utility)
  • ❌ Adding dependency without checking size/alternatives
  • ❌ No error handling ("will add later" = never happens)

Portfolio Buddy 2 Lessons

  • Did well: Questioned need for Redux, used plain React hooks instead
  • Did well: Chose Chart.js over Recharts after testing both
  • Should improve: Let PortfolioSection grow to 591 lines
  • Should improve: Accumulated 14 any type violations

Framework in Action

When you're about to start coding, ask:

  1. What am I building? (clear requirement)
  2. Why am I building it? (real problem to solve)
  3. What can I delete? (remove unnecessary parts)
  4. What's the simplest version? (MVP approach)
  5. How confident am I? (ICE scoring)
  6. What's the time estimate? (be realistic, multiply by 2)

Then write your plan as:

  • 3-5 bullet point approach
  • Time estimate
  • Files that will change
  • Potential issues

Finally:

  • Get feedback if >4 hours of work
  • Start with smallest testable increment
  • Commit frequently