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Infrastructure and development cost estimation for technical projects. Use when planning budgets, evaluating build vs buy decisions, or projecting TCO for architecture choices.

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SKILL.md

name cost-estimator
description Infrastructure and development cost estimation for technical projects. Use when planning budgets, evaluating build vs buy decisions, or projecting TCO for architecture choices.

Cost Estimator

Provides frameworks for estimating infrastructure costs, development effort, and total cost of ownership (TCO) for technical projects.

When to Use

  • Planning infrastructure budgets
  • Evaluating build vs. buy decisions
  • Projecting costs at different scale points
  • Comparing technology options by cost
  • Creating business cases for technical investments

Cost Categories

Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)

TCO = Infrastructure + Development + Operations + Opportunity Cost

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP                       │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                                  │
│  Infrastructure    Development    Operations    Opportunity      │
│  ────────────────  ────────────   ──────────    ────────────     │
│  • Compute         • Engineering  • Support     • What else      │
│  • Storage         • QA           • Monitoring  • could team     │
│  • Network         • DevOps       • On-call     • be building?   │
│  • Third-party     • Management   • Training                     │
│    APIs/SaaS       • Contractors  • Incidents                    │
│                                                                  │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Infrastructure Cost Reference

Cloud Compute Pricing (2024-2025)

AWS EC2 On-Demand (US regions)

Instance vCPU RAM Monthly Cost Best For
t3.micro 2 1GB $8 Dev/test
t3.medium 2 4GB $30 Small apps
t3.large 2 8GB $60 Light production
m6i.large 2 8GB $70 General production
m6i.xlarge 4 16GB $140 Medium workloads
m6i.2xlarge 8 32GB $280 Heavy workloads
c6i.2xlarge 8 16GB $250 CPU-intensive
r6i.2xlarge 8 64GB $370 Memory-intensive

GPU Instances

Instance GPU VRAM Monthly Cost Best For
g4dn.xlarge T4 16GB $380 Inference
g5.xlarge A10G 24GB $730 ML training/inference
p4d.24xlarge 8x A100 320GB $23,000 Large model training

Savings Options

Plan Savings Commitment
On-Demand 0% None
Reserved (1yr) 30-40% 1 year
Reserved (3yr) 50-60% 3 years
Spot Instances 60-90% Can be interrupted

Database Pricing

Managed Database (AWS RDS PostgreSQL)

Instance vCPU RAM Monthly Cost Connections
db.t3.micro 2 1GB $15 50
db.t3.medium 2 4GB $50 100
db.m6g.large 2 8GB $120 200
db.m6g.xlarge 4 16GB $240 400
db.r6g.xlarge 4 32GB $350 500
db.r6g.2xlarge 8 64GB $700 1000

Add for storage: $0.115/GB/month (gp3) Add for IOPS: $0.02/IOPS/month (over 3000 baseline)

Redis/ElastiCache

Node Type RAM Monthly Cost
cache.t3.micro 0.5GB $12
cache.t3.medium 3GB $50
cache.m6g.large 6.4GB $100
cache.r6g.large 13GB $175

Storage Pricing

Service Cost Use Case
S3 Standard $0.023/GB Frequently accessed
S3 Infrequent $0.0125/GB Backups, archives
S3 Glacier $0.004/GB Long-term archive
EBS gp3 $0.08/GB Block storage
EBS io2 $0.125/GB + IOPS High performance

Network Costs (Often Overlooked!)

Traffic Type Cost
Data IN Free
Data OUT (first 10TB) $0.09/GB
Data OUT (next 40TB) $0.085/GB
Inter-AZ transfer $0.01/GB each way
Inter-region transfer $0.02/GB
CloudFront to internet $0.085/GB

Development Cost Estimation

Engineering Cost Framework

Development Cost = (Hours × Hourly Rate) × Complexity Factor × Risk Buffer

Hourly Rate (Fully Loaded):
- Junior Engineer: $75-100/hr
- Mid-level Engineer: $100-150/hr
- Senior Engineer: $150-200/hr
- Staff/Principal: $200-300/hr

Complexity Factors:
- Greenfield, known tech: 1.0x
- Existing codebase, known tech: 1.2x
- New technology for team: 1.5x
- Complex integrations: 1.3x
- Regulatory/compliance: 1.4x

Risk Buffer:
- Well-defined requirements: 1.2x
- Ambiguous requirements: 1.5x
- Experimental/R&D: 2.0x

Story Point to Cost Mapping

Size Story Points Hours Cost (Mid-level)
XS 1 2-4 $200-400
S 2 4-8 $400-800
M 3 8-16 $800-1,600
L 5 16-32 $1,600-3,200
XL 8 32-64 $3,200-6,400
XXL 13+ 64+ $6,400+

Team Cost Calculator

## Monthly Team Cost

Engineering Team:
- 2 Senior Engineers × $15,000 = $30,000
- 3 Mid-level Engineers × $10,000 = $30,000
- 1 Engineering Manager × $18,000 = $18,000

Overhead (benefits, tools, etc.): 30%
Monthly Burn: ($78,000) × 1.3 = $101,400

Annual Team Cost: ~$1.2M

Build vs. Buy Analysis

Decision Framework

Build vs Buy Decision Matrix:

                    LOW Differentiation    HIGH Differentiation
                   ┌────────────────────┬────────────────────┐
    HIGH Volume/   │                    │                    │
    Usage          │     Consider       │       BUILD        │
                   │      Build         │    (competitive    │
                   │   (cost savings)   │     advantage)     │
                   ├────────────────────┼────────────────────┤
    LOW Volume/    │                    │                    │
    Usage          │       BUY          │       BUY          │
                   │   (no question)    │  (then consider    │
                   │                    │   build if scales) │
                   └────────────────────┴────────────────────┘

TCO Comparison Template

## Option A: Build Custom Solution

### Initial Development
- Engineering time: X months × $Y/month = $Z
- Infrastructure setup: $A

### Ongoing Costs (Annual)
- Infrastructure: $B
- Maintenance (20% of dev time): $C
- On-call/support: $D

### 3-Year TCO
Year 1: $Z + $A + $B + $C + $D
Year 2: $B + $C + $D
Year 3: $B + $C + $D
Total: $XXX

---

## Option B: Buy SaaS Solution

### Initial Costs
- Implementation/integration: $X
- Training: $Y

### Ongoing Costs (Annual)
- License fees: $Z/year
- Per-user costs: $A × users
- API costs: $B

### 3-Year TCO
Year 1: $X + $Y + $Z + $A + $B
Year 2: $Z + $A + $B
Year 3: $Z + $A + $B
Total: $XXX

Common Build vs Buy Scenarios

Capability Build When Buy When
Authentication Unique security requirements Standard OAuth/OIDC works
Payments Core business differentiator Standard e-commerce
Search Domain-specific relevance Generic search needs
Analytics Proprietary insights needed Standard dashboards work
Email High volume, custom delivery Standard transactional
ML/AI Proprietary models needed Pre-trained models work

Cost Projection by Scale

SaaS Application Cost Model

Scale Users Monthly Infra Notes
Startup 0-1K $200-500 Single server, managed DB
Growth 1K-10K $500-2,000 Load balancer, caching
Scale 10K-100K $2,000-10,000 Horizontal scaling
Enterprise 100K-1M $10,000-50,000 Multi-region, HA
Large 1M+ $50,000+ Global, custom CDN

Cost Per User Benchmarks

Application Type Cost/User/Month Notes
Simple web app $0.05-0.20 Static + API
Data-intensive $0.20-0.50 Analytics, storage
Real-time $0.50-2.00 WebSockets, streaming
ML-powered $1.00-5.00 Inference costs
Video/media $2.00-10.00 Transcoding, CDN

E-commerce Cost Model

## Monthly Infrastructure Cost by GMV

$0-100K GMV/month:
- Basic infrastructure: $500
- Payment processing (2.9%): ~$2,000
- Total: ~$2,500

$100K-1M GMV/month:
- Scaled infrastructure: $2,000
- Payment processing: ~$20,000
- Fraud protection: $500
- Total: ~$22,500

$1M-10M GMV/month:
- HA infrastructure: $10,000
- Payment processing: ~$200,000
- Fraud/security: $5,000
- CDN/performance: $3,000
- Total: ~$218,000

Hidden Cost Checklist

Often Missed in Estimates

Infrastructure:

  • Data transfer costs (egress)
  • Backup storage
  • Log storage (CloudWatch: $0.50/GB)
  • SSL certificates
  • DNS queries
  • Load balancer hours

Development:

  • Code reviews (add 20-30% to dev time)
  • Documentation
  • Testing infrastructure
  • CI/CD pipeline (GitHub Actions: $0.008/min)
  • Staging environments

Operations:

  • Monitoring tools (Datadog: ~$15/host/month)
  • Error tracking (Sentry: $26+/month)
  • Log management
  • On-call compensation
  • Incident response time

Third-Party Services:

  • Email (SendGrid: $0.00025-0.001/email)
  • SMS (Twilio: $0.0075/message)
  • Video (encoding, streaming)
  • Maps/geocoding (Google: $7/1K requests)

Cost Optimization Strategies

Quick Wins

Strategy Savings Effort
Reserved instances 30-60% Low
Right-sizing instances 20-40% Medium
Spot instances (non-critical) 60-90% Medium
Storage tiering 50-80% Low
CDN caching 30-50% bandwidth Low

Architecture Optimizations

Optimization Impact Complexity
Caching (Redis) 50-80% DB load reduction Medium
Queue-based processing Smooth traffic spikes Medium
Auto-scaling Pay for what you use Medium
Serverless (appropriate use) Variable → zero when idle High
Multi-region read replicas Reduce cross-region costs High

Cost Estimation Templates

Project Budget Template

# Project: [Name]
# Duration: [X months]

## Development Costs

| Phase | Duration | Team Size | Cost |
|-------|----------|-----------|------|
| Discovery/Design | 2 weeks | 2 | $X |
| MVP Development | 8 weeks | 4 | $X |
| Testing/QA | 2 weeks | 3 | $X |
| Deployment | 1 week | 2 | $X |
| **Total Development** | | | **$X** |

## Infrastructure Costs (First Year)

| Component | Monthly | Annual |
|-----------|---------|--------|
| Compute | $X | $X |
| Database | $X | $X |
| Storage | $X | $X |
| Network | $X | $X |
| Third-party APIs | $X | $X |
| Monitoring/Tools | $X | $X |
| **Total Infrastructure** | **$X** | **$X** |

## Ongoing Costs (Annual)

| Category | Cost |
|----------|------|
| Infrastructure | $X |
| Maintenance (20% of dev) | $X |
| Support/On-call | $X |
| Tool licenses | $X |
| **Total Annual** | **$X** |

## Summary

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Total First Year | $X |
| Annual Run Rate | $X |
| 3-Year TCO | $X |
| Cost per User (at scale) | $X |

Quick Estimate Calculator

## Quick Infrastructure Estimate

Inputs:
- Expected users: [X]
- Requests per user/day: [Y]
- Data storage per user: [Z GB]
- Growth rate: [W%/month]

Calculations:
- Daily requests: X × Y
- Monthly requests: Daily × 30
- Required compute: (Monthly requests / 100K) × $50
- Storage: X × Z × $0.10
- Database: (X / 10K) × $200
- Estimated monthly: Compute + Storage + Database × 1.3

12-month projection with growth:
Sum of (Monthly × (1 + W%)^month) for months 1-12

References