Substack Growth Strategy Skill

The 2025 Substack Reality

Key platform facts:

• 5 million+ paid subscriptions (up from 4M four months ago)
• 35 million+ active subscriptions (free + paid)
• 50,000+ publishers generating income
• App drives ~1/3 of all paid subscriptions
• Algorithm optimizes for subscriptions and paid conversions, not engagement

The Challenge

Organic discovery is getting harder as the platform grows. Many writers report 80-90% subscriber growth drop in 2025 due to:

• Algorithm bias toward big names
• Increased competition
• Content saturation

Solution: Maximize native features (Notes, Recommendations) + external traffic sources.

The Three Growth Pillars

1. Newsletter (Foundation)

Your newsletter builds trust. It's what people subscribe for.

2. Notes (Visibility)

Notes build reach. They're your organic marketing channel.

3. Recommendations (Network Effects)

Recommendations create compounding growth through cross-promotion.

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Notes: The Fastest Growth Channel

Notes is "the most efficient subscriber acquisition channel on the entire platform when used correctly."

The Numbers

• Smaller creators acquire 60% of new free subscribers via Notes recommendations
• Daily Notes = 40-60% of total subscriber growth for active users
• Some creators: 0 to 500 subscribers in weeks using Notes alone

The 20-Minute Daily Routine

Total time: 20 minutes/day for consistent growth (5-11 new subscribers/day reported)

Morning (7 min):
├── Post 1 Note: Community-focused (invites interaction)
├── Leave 2-3 thoughtful comments on others' Notes
└── Reply to any comments on your Notes

Midday (6 min):
├── Post 1 Note: Educational (one specific tip/insight)
└── Leave 2-3 comments on trending Notes in your niche

Evening (7 min):
├── Post 1 Note: Personal/motivational (builds connection)
├── Reply to all new comments
└── Restack 1-2 great Notes from others

Notes Best Practices

Frequency:

• Beginners: 3-5 Notes/week
• Intermediate: 1-3 Notes/day
• Growth mode: 2-3 Notes/day + 5-10 comments/day

Content Types:

• Quick insights (snackable)
• Questions that spark discussion
• Quotes from your newsletter
• Teasers for upcoming posts
• Celebrating other writers

Comments Matter More:

• Every comment = free visibility
• Days with 3-4 thoughtful comments = subscriber spikes
• Avoid "Great post!" — add genuine value
• Substack reminds people to subscribe when you interact with them

The Restack Multiplier

Restacking = retweeting. When you restack, it appears in your followers' feeds.

Strategic restacking:

• Restacks outside your main topic = more visibility, not less
• Share others' long-form posts to Notes (shows audience overlap to algorithm)
• Restack great work generously (good community + good strategy)

Algorithm Insight

"The algorithm now heavily amplifies Notes that actively drive subscription behavior — not just likes or comments, but actual 'go subscribe to this writer' recommendations."

Notes with explicit recommendations ("You should subscribe to [writer]") got thousands of views vs normal 300 views.

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Recommendations: The Network Effect

40%+ of growth can come from recommendations alone.

How It Works

1. You recommend other Substacks
2. Your recommendations show to new subscribers
3. Recommended writers are prompted to recommend you back
4. Their new subscribers see your recommendation

Setting Up Recommendations

1. Go to Settings → Recommendations
2. Add publications you genuinely recommend
3. Write meaningful blurbs (most writers skip this — don't)
4. Target similar audience, ideally with more subscribers

The Blurb Matters

"Many writers click the Recommend button, but few take the time to write a blurb — that's a mistake."

A good blurb:

• Says why you recommend them
• Gets added to their Welcome page
• Increases reciprocal recommendations

Strategy: The Recommendation Ladder

1. Start with peers — Writers at your level, similar niche
2. Build relationships — Engage genuinely before asking
3. Move up gradually — Larger writers as you grow
4. Be generous — Recommend without expecting reciprocation

What Works Best

• Similar audience demographic
• Complementary (not competing) content
• Writers you genuinely read and value
• Writers active in the community

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The Discovery Funnel

How Substack Discovery Works

Notes Activity
     ↓
Algorithm sees audience overlap
     ↓
Your content shown to similar readers
     ↓
Recommendations amplify this
     ↓
Leaderboard visibility (if earning)
     ↓
Featured placements

Leaderboards

Two types per category:

Leaderboard	Ranking Factor	Update Frequency
Rising	Paid subscription growth	Every few hours
Bestseller	Annual Recurring Revenue	Daily

To appear on leaderboards:

• Paid subscriptions must be enabled
• Choose primary + secondary category strategically
• Consistent paid growth matters

Category Strategy:

• Primary = where you appear on leaderboard
• Secondary = expanded discovery reach
• Check competitors in your niche
• Consider less saturated categories

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Free vs Paid Content Strategy

Conversion Benchmarks

• Most newsletters convert 5-10% of free subscribers to paid
• 40%+ open rate = healthy engagement for conversion

Two Models

1. The Subscription Model (Paywall)

• Best content behind paywall
• Works for: investing, business, high-value actionable info
• Readers pay monthly/annually for access

2. The Product Model (Free + Premium)

• Best content stays free
• Premium = community, resources, courses, templates
• Works for: educators, creators, thought leaders

What Works for Paywalls

• Clear value proposition — pitch the upgrade every time you're in front of free readers
• Assets behind paywall — templates, swipe files, spreadsheets, tools
• Community access — private Slack/Discord as paid benefit
• Preview then gate — explain what's inside before locking

2025 Reality

"People are no longer paying for 'content'. They're paying for access to solutions to their problems."

Just content isn't enough anymore. Consider:

• Community
• Office hours / Q&A
• Resources / tools
• Early access
• Direct access to you

When to Turn On Paid

Most successful writers:

1. Start free
2. Build to critical mass (few thousand subscribers)
3. Then enable paid with clear value proposition

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Subscriber Retention

Acquiring a new subscriber is 5-25x more expensive than retaining one. Reducing churn by just 5% can boost profitability by 75%.

Retention Signals

Watch in your Substack dashboard:

• Paid subscriber retention curves
• Sharp drops at 1-year renewal
• Open rate trends
• Reply rates

Retention Strategies

Personalized Value:

• Content that feels tailored
• Segment your audience (free vs paid)
• Address subscriber-specific needs

Consistent Communication:

• Regular schedule creates anticipation
• Builds habit, reduces surprise charges

Community Building:

• Sense of belonging
• Connection with you AND other readers
• Comments, Chat, community spaces

Proactive Retention Emails:

• Renewal reminders
• Expiration notices
• Cancellation win-backs

Predictive Indicators

At-risk subscribers often show:

• Declining open rates
• No recent clicks
• No comments/engagement
• Payment failures approaching

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Cross-Platform Promotion

Don't rely on Substack discovery alone.

External Traffic Sources

Platform	Strategy
Twitter/X	Thread with key insights → link to full newsletter
LinkedIn	Carousel summarizing post → "full breakdown in newsletter"
Instagram	Stories teasing content → link sticker
SEO	Evergreen posts that answer search queries

The LinkedIn → Substack Pipeline

1. Write short LinkedIn newsletter on your niche theme
2. Tease but don't give away everything
3. Link to full Substack post
4. Convert LinkedIn readers to Substack subscribers

Homepage Optimization

• Add lead magnets to navigation
• Feature best posts / "Start Here"
• Clear upgrade CTA
• Pinned post for new visitors

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Growth Timeline Expectations

Be realistic:

Milestone	Typical Timeline
First 500 subscribers	1-3 months (with Notes)
First 1,000 subscribers	3-6 months
First paid subscriber	After ~1,000 free (varies)
10% free→paid conversion	6-12 months of nurturing
Sustainable income	12-24 months

Growth compounds. Early months feel slow, then accelerate.

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Weekly Growth Routine

## Monday
- [ ] Publish newsletter
- [ ] Post 2-3 Notes promoting it
- [ ] Engage in comments

## Tuesday - Thursday
- [ ] 2-3 Notes per day
- [ ] 10+ comments on others' content
- [ ] Respond to all replies
- [ ] 1-2 restacks of great content

## Friday
- [ ] Review week's metrics
- [ ] Plan next week's newsletter
- [ ] Send any pending recommendations

## Weekend (optional)
- [ ] Light engagement
- [ ] Draft next newsletter

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Metrics Dashboard

Weekly Tracking

Metric	Target	Notes
New subscribers (free)	Steady growth	Notes = 40-60% of this
New subscribers (paid)	5-10% of free	Conversion rate
Open rate	>40%	Engagement health
Click rate	>5%	Content relevance
Unsubscribes	<1% per email	Content/frequency issues

Monthly Review

• Total subscriber growth rate
• Recommendation-sourced subscribers
• Notes engagement trends
• Retention curves
• Revenue growth (if paid)

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Spanish-Language Growth (tacosdedatos)

The Opportunity

• Spanish-speaking Substack community is small but growing fast (+1,514% annual growth possible)
• Platform is Anglo-centric → less competition
• Collaborate with other Hispanic creators from day one

Spanish-Specific Tactics

1. Cross-recommend with Spanish tech/data Substacks
2. Notes in Spanish (engage the Hispanic community)
3. Highlight Spanish content in Notes
4. Feature in Spanish-language roundups

Growth Case Study

Veronica Llorca-Smith's "El Limonero":

• 0 → 2,680 subscribers in one year
• 50 paid subscribers
• 66 countries
• Key: Collaborating with Hispanic creators from start

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Anti-Patterns

Don't:

• Spam Notes with self-promotion only
• Expect overnight growth
• Ignore the recommendation network
• Rely only on Substack discovery
• Publish inconsistently
• Skip engagement (Notes/comments)
• Gate ALL content (kills growth)
• Use engagement pods (Substack can detect)

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Quarterly Strategy Review

## Substack Growth Review

### Subscribers
- [ ] Free growth rate vs last quarter
- [ ] Paid growth rate
- [ ] Recommendation-sourced %
- [ ] Notes-sourced %

### Content
- [ ] Publishing consistency
- [ ] Open rate trends
- [ ] Best performing posts — why?
- [ ] Worst performing — what to avoid?

### Engagement
- [ ] Notes activity level
- [ ] Comment engagement
- [ ] Recommendation reciprocity

### Revenue (if applicable)
- [ ] MRR/ARR growth
- [ ] Churn rate
- [ ] Conversion rate trends

### Next Quarter Goals
- [ ] Subscriber target
- [ ] Content experiments
- [ ] Collaboration targets
- [ ] New promotion channels

References

For algorithm research, source links, and detailed tactics, see references/REFERENCES.md.