| name | estimating-work |
| description | Estimate effort for development tasks. Use when planning sprints, roadmaps, or project timelines. Covers story points, relative estimation, and uncertainty. |
| allowed-tools | Read, Glob, Grep |
Estimating Work
Estimation Approaches
Story Points
Relative complexity, not time.
| Points | Complexity |
|---|---|
| 1 | Trivial, well understood |
| 2 | Simple, minor unknowns |
| 3 | Moderate complexity |
| 5 | Complex, some unknowns |
| 8 | Very complex, significant unknowns |
| 13 | Extremely complex, many unknowns |
| 21+ | Too big, needs decomposition |
T-Shirt Sizing
For high-level estimates.
| Size | Relative Effort |
|---|---|
| XS | Hours |
| S | 1-2 days |
| M | 3-5 days |
| L | 1-2 weeks |
| XL | 2-4 weeks |
Estimation Factors
Consider:
- Complexity: How difficult is the problem?
- Uncertainty: How much is unknown?
- Effort: How much work is involved?
- Risk: What could go wrong?
Estimation Techniques
Planning Poker
- Present the task
- Everyone selects estimate privately
- Reveal simultaneously
- Discuss outliers
- Re-estimate if needed
Three-Point Estimation
Expected = (Optimistic + 4×Likely + Pessimistic) / 6
Reference Stories
Keep calibration stories:
- "This 3-point story took 2 days"
- "This 8-point story took a week"
Common Pitfalls
- Anchoring: First estimate biases others
- Optimism: Underestimating unknowns
- Scope Creep: Original estimate doesn't match final scope
- Ignoring Overhead: Code review, testing, deployment
Tips
- Estimate in ranges, not points
- Include buffer for unknowns
- Track actual vs. estimated
- Re-estimate when scope changes
- Don't estimate in hours (use relative sizing)