ID8SCOUT - Validation Engine

Purpose

Transform raw ideas into validated (or invalidated) opportunities through systematic research. Every idea deserves rigorous testing before building.

Output: Validation Report with BUILD / PIVOT / KILL verdict

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When to Use

• User has a new business/product idea to evaluate
• User asks "should I build X?"
• User wants market research on a concept
• User needs competitive analysis
• User wants to understand if there's demand
• Project is in CAPTURED or VALIDATING state

---

Commands

/scout <idea-description>

Run full validation on an idea.

Process:

1. INTAKE - Clarify the idea
2. MARKET - Size the opportunity
3. COMPETITION - Map the landscape
4. COMMUNITY - Mine real signals
5. CALIBRATE - Adjust for solo builder
6. SYNTHESIZE - Render verdict

/scout market <topic>

Run only market analysis.

/scout competitors <product/space>

Run only competitive analysis.

/scout signals <topic>

Run only community signal mining.

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Validation Process

Phase 1: INTAKE (2-3 minutes)

Clarify the idea before researching.

Questions to answer:

1. What is it? - One sentence description
2. Who is it for? - Specific target user
3. What problem does it solve? - Pain point or desire
4. How is it different? - Why not use existing solutions?
5. What's the hypothesis? - What are we betting on?

If project exists in tracker:

• Load from project card
• Use existing one-liner and context

If new idea:

• Prompt for clarification
• Suggest creating project: /tracker new

---

Phase 2: MARKET (5-10 minutes)

Size the opportunity and understand trends.

Use: mcp__perplexity__search and mcp__perplexity__reason

Research areas:

1. TAM/SAM/SOM

   • Total Addressable Market - Everyone who could use this
   • Serviceable Addressable Market - Those you can reach
   • Serviceable Obtainable Market - Realistic capture

2. Market Trends

   • Is this market growing or shrinking?
   • What's driving the trend?
   • Where in the adoption curve?

3. Timing Assessment

   • Too early? (Market not ready)
   • Too late? (Saturated)
   • Just right? (Growing, not crowded)

Search queries to run:

- "{topic} market size 2024 2025"
- "{topic} industry trends"
- "{topic} growth rate"
- "{problem} solutions market"

Output: Market Analysis section of validation report

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Phase 3: COMPETITION (5-10 minutes)

Map the competitive landscape and find gaps.

Use: mcp__perplexity__search, mcp__firecrawl__firecrawl_search, mcp__firecrawl__firecrawl_scrape

Research areas:

1. Direct Competitors

   • Who solves the same problem?
   • What do they charge?
   • How do they position?

2. Indirect Competitors

   • Alternative solutions to the problem
   • Adjacent products that could expand

3. Competitor Weaknesses

   • What do users complain about?
   • What's missing?
   • Where are the gaps?

4. Competitive Moats

   • What advantages do incumbents have?
   • Network effects? Data? Brand?

Search queries to run:

- "{topic} tools alternatives"
- "{competitor} reviews complaints"
- "best {solution type} 2024 2025"
- "{competitor} vs" (autocomplete reveals competitors)

Scraping targets:

• Competitor landing pages (positioning, pricing)
• Review sites (G2, Capterra, Product Hunt)
• Comparison articles

Output: Competitive Landscape section of validation report

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Phase 4: COMMUNITY (5-10 minutes)

Mine real signals from where users talk.

Use: mcp__perplexity__search, mcp__firecrawl__firecrawl_search

Signal sources:

1. Reddit

   • Subreddits where target users hang out
   • Posts asking for solutions
   • Complaints about existing tools

2. YouTube

   • Video comments on related content
   • Tutorial views (demand signal)
   • Creator complaints

3. Twitter/X

   • Threads about the problem
   • Product complaints
   • Feature requests

4. Forums/Communities

   • Indie Hackers
   • Hacker News
   • Niche communities

What to look for:

• Pain intensity (how much do they care?)
• Willingness to pay (are they spending already?)
• Frequency (how often do they have this problem?)
• Workarounds (what janky solutions do they use?)

Search queries to run:

- "site:reddit.com {problem} help"
- "site:reddit.com {existing solution} frustrating"
- "{topic} indie hackers"
- "{problem} twitter thread"

Output: Community Signals section with real quotes

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Phase 5: CALIBRATE (2-3 minutes)

Adjust all estimates for AI-augmented solo builder reality.

Calibration factors:

Traditional Assumption	Calibrated Reality
6-person dev team	1-2 people + AI tools
$100K+ budget	$0-10K bootstrap
6-12 month timeline	2-8 weeks to MVP
Enterprise features first	Core value only
VC-scale growth	Sustainable indie growth

Recalibrate:

• Development estimates (AI makes this 5-10x faster)
• Market capture (smaller is fine for solo)
• Competitive moats (speed and focus beat resources)
• Revenue goals ($10K MRR can be life-changing)

Apply to:

• Execution plan timeline
• Budget requirements
• Success metrics

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Phase 6: SYNTHESIZE (5 minutes)

Combine all research into verdict.

Verdict options:

Verdict	Meaning	Criteria
BUILD	Proceed to architecture	Evidence of demand + achievable by solo builder + acceptable competition
PIVOT	Refine and revalidate	Core insight valid but approach needs change
KILL	Don't build this	No demand, or insurmountable competition, or poor fit

Confidence levels:

• High - Strong evidence, clear signals
• Medium - Mixed signals, some uncertainty
• Low - Weak evidence, significant unknowns

For BUILD verdict, also provide:

• Recommended MVP scope
• Key risks to watch
• Suggested first milestone

For PIVOT verdict, also provide:

• What to change
• New hypothesis to test
• Suggested research focus

For KILL verdict, also provide:

• Why it won't work
• What we learned
• Any salvageable ideas

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Integration with Tracker

On Start

If project slug provided:
  Load project from tracker
  Use existing context
Else:
  Prompt to create project first
  Or run as standalone research

On Complete

1. Generate validation report
2. Save to project artifacts (if project exists)
3. Log to tracker:
   /tracker log {project} "Scout: Validation complete - {VERDICT} verdict ({confidence})"
4. If BUILD: Suggest /tracker update {project} VALIDATED
5. If KILL: Suggest /tracker kill {project}

---

MCP Usage Patterns

Perplexity (Primary Research)

# Quick market search
mcp__perplexity__search({
  query: "{topic} market size trends 2024 2025"
})

# Complex reasoning
mcp__perplexity__reason({
  query: "Analyze the competitive landscape for {product type}. Who are the major players, what are their strengths and weaknesses, and where are the gaps?"
})

# Deep research
mcp__perplexity__deep_research({
  query: "Comprehensive analysis of {market}",
  focus_areas: ["market size", "growth trends", "key players", "emerging opportunities"]
})

Firecrawl (Web Scraping)

# Search for competitors
mcp__firecrawl__firecrawl_search({
  query: "{product type} tools alternatives",
  limit: 10
})

# Scrape competitor landing page
mcp__firecrawl__firecrawl_scrape({
  url: "https://competitor.com",
  formats: ["markdown"]
})

# Extract structured data
mcp__firecrawl__firecrawl_extract({
  urls: ["https://competitor.com/pricing"],
  prompt: "Extract pricing tiers, features, and target audience",
  schema: {
    type: "object",
    properties: {
      pricing_tiers: { type: "array" },
      features: { type: "array" },
      target_audience: { type: "string" }
    }
  }
})

GitHub (Competitor Analysis)

# Search for open source alternatives
mcp__github__search_repositories({
  query: "{topic} tool"
})

# Check competitor repo activity
mcp__github__list_commits({
  owner: "competitor",
  repo: "their-product"
})

---

Subagent Integration

market-intelligence-analyst

Delegate complex research tasks:

Task({
  subagent_type: "market-intelligence-analyst",
  prompt: "Research the {topic} market. Focus on:
    1. Market size and growth rate
    2. Key trends driving the market
    3. Major players and their positioning
    4. Emerging opportunities and gaps

    Provide specific data points with sources."
})

---

Output Format

Generate validation report using templates/validation-report.md

Key sections:

1. Executive Summary (verdict + confidence + one paragraph)
2. Market Analysis (TAM/SAM/SOM, trends, timing)
3. Competitive Landscape (players, gaps, moats)
4. Community Signals (real quotes, pain intensity)
5. Founder Fit Assessment (skills, resources, motivation)
6. Execution Plan (calibrated for solo builder)
7. Risks & Mitigations
8. Verdict & Reasoning
9. Sources

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Error Handling

Issue	Response
MCP unavailable	Fall back to web search, note limitation
Insufficient data	Lower confidence, note gaps
Conflicting signals	Present both sides, explain uncertainty
No competitors found	Flag as potential blue ocean OR hidden problem
Overwhelming competition	Analyze for niche opportunities

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Changelog

v1.0.0 (2025-12-21)

• Initial release
• Full validation pipeline
• Perplexity + Firecrawl integration
• Calibration layer for solo builders
• Tracker integration