Nixtla Demo Generator

Generate interactive, production-ready Jupyter notebooks that showcase Nixtla forecasting workflows with complete data pipelines, model training, evaluation, and visualization.

Overview

This skill creates high-quality demonstration notebooks:

• Three library support: StatsForecast, MLForecast, TimeGPT
• Complete workflows: Data loading, preprocessing, model training, forecasting, evaluation, visualization
• Production patterns: Best practices, error handling, performance optimization
• Instant demos: Ready for Nixtla CEO presentations, customer POCs, and documentation
• Customizable templates: Modify for specific use cases and datasets

Prerequisites

Required:

• Python 3.8+
• Jupyter notebook (pip install jupyter)
• At least one Nixtla library:
  • statsforecast - Statistical models (ARIMA, ETS, etc.)
  • mlforecast - Machine learning models (LightGBM, XGBoost)
  • nixtla - TimeGPT API access

Optional:

• NIXTLA_API_KEY: For TimeGPT demos
• Sample datasets (M4, custom time series)

Installation:

pip install jupyter statsforecast mlforecast nixtla pandas matplotlib

Instructions

Step 1: Choose Library

Select which Nixtla library to demonstrate:

# Options: statsforecast, mlforecast, timegpt
export DEMO_LIBRARY=statsforecast

Step 2: Generate Notebook

Run the generator script:

python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
    --library statsforecast \
    --dataset m4-daily \
    --output demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

Step 3: Customize (Optional)

Edit the generated notebook to:

• Add custom datasets
• Modify model configurations
• Adjust visualizations
• Include domain-specific context

Step 4: Execute Notebook

Run the generated notebook:

jupyter notebook demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

Or execute non-interactively:

jupyter nbconvert --to notebook --execute demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

Step 5: Export Results

Export to various formats:

# HTML for sharing
jupyter nbconvert --to html demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

# PDF for presentations
jupyter nbconvert --to pdf demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

# Python script for automation
jupyter nbconvert --to python demo_statsforecast_m4.ipynb

Output

• [library]_demo.ipynb: Complete Jupyter notebook with:
  • Introduction and setup
  • Data loading and exploration
  • Model configuration
  • Training and forecasting
  • Evaluation metrics (SMAPE, MASE, MAE)
  • Visualizations (forecasts, residuals, comparisons)
  • Next steps and resources

Error Handling

1. Error: ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'statsforecast' Solution: Install required library: pip install statsforecast mlforecast nixtla

2. Error: NIXTLA_API_KEY not set (TimeGPT demos) Solution: Export API key: export NIXTLA_API_KEY=your_key or skip TimeGPT demo

3. Error: Dataset file not found Solution: Use --generate-sample-data flag to create synthetic dataset

4. Error: nbformat.validator.ValidationError Solution: Check Jupyter version compatibility: pip install --upgrade jupyter nbformat

5. Error: Kernel died while executing notebook Solution: Reduce dataset size or increase memory allocation

Examples

Example 1: StatsForecast M4 Daily Demo

python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
    --library statsforecast \
    --dataset m4-daily \
    --models AutoETS,AutoARIMA,SeasonalNaive \
    --horizon 14 \
    --output demo_statsforecast_m4_daily.ipynb

Generated notebook includes:

# Import libraries
from statsforecast import StatsForecast
from statsforecast.models import AutoETS, AutoARIMA, SeasonalNaive
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Load M4 Daily data
df = pd.read_csv('m4_daily_sample.csv')
print(f"Loaded {len(df)} rows, {df['unique_id'].nunique()} series")

# Configure models
sf = StatsForecast(
    models=[AutoETS(), AutoARIMA(), SeasonalNaive(season_length=7)],
    freq='D',
    n_jobs=-1
)

# Generate forecasts
forecasts = sf.forecast(df=df, h=14)

# Evaluate
from statsforecast.utils import calculate_metrics
metrics = calculate_metrics(df, forecasts, metrics=['smape', 'mase'])
print(metrics)

# Visualize
sf.plot(df, forecasts)
plt.show()

Example 2: MLForecast with Exogenous Features

python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
    --library mlforecast \
    --dataset retail-sales \
    --models LightGBM,XGBoost \
    --features lag,rolling_mean,date_features \
    --output demo_mlforecast_retail.ipynb

Generated notebook features:

• Lag features (1, 7, 14 days)
• Rolling statistics (mean, std, min, max)
• Date features (day of week, month, is_weekend)
• LightGBM and XGBoost model comparison
• Feature importance plots

Example 3: TimeGPT API Demo

python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
    --library timegpt \
    --dataset custom \
    --api-key $NIXTLA_API_KEY \
    --horizon 30 \
    --confidence-levels 80,90,95 \
    --output demo_timegpt_api.ipynb

Generated notebook demonstrates:

• TimeGPT API client initialization
• Data upload and validation
• Forecast generation with confidence intervals
• Probabilistic forecasting
• Anomaly detection integration

Example 4: Batch Generate All Three Libraries

for library in statsforecast mlforecast timegpt; do
    python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
        --library $library \
        --dataset m4-hourly \
        --output "demo_${library}_m4_hourly.ipynb"
done

Example 5: Custom Template with Branding

python {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py \
    --library statsforecast \
    --dataset m4-weekly \
    --template {baseDir}/assets/templates/custom_branded_template.ipynb \
    --logo company_logo.png \
    --output demo_branded.ipynb

Resources

• StatsForecast Docs: https://nixtla.github.io/statsforecast/
• MLForecast Docs: https://nixtla.github.io/mlforecast/
• TimeGPT Docs: https://docs.nixtla.io/
• Jupyter Tutorial: https://jupyter.org/try
• M4 Competition: https://github.com/Mcompetitions/M4-methods

Related Skills:

• nixtla-timegpt-lab: Interactive TimeGPT experimentation
• nixtla-experiment-architect: Multi-model experiment design
• nixtla-schema-mapper: Data transformation for Nixtla format

Scripts:

• {baseDir}/scripts/generate_demo_notebook.py: Main notebook generator
• {baseDir}/assets/templates/statsforecast_template.ipynb: StatsForecast base template
• {baseDir}/assets/templates/mlforecast_template.ipynb: MLForecast base template
• {baseDir}/assets/templates/timegpt_template.ipynb: TimeGPT base template