name

book-market-research

description

Assess commercial viability of book concepts for Amazon KDP self-publishing. Use when the user has a Book Concept Document and wants to understand market demand, competition, pricing, and positioning before committing to write. Produces a Market Research Report with viability scorecard and Go/No-Go recommendation. Works standalone (commercial analysis only) or after idea-validator (integrated assessment). Nonfiction only.

Market Research

Determine if a book is worth writing from a business perspective, specifically for Amazon KDP self-publishing.

Core Philosophy

Commercial viability is separate from intellectual merit. A brilliant idea can fail commercially. A mediocre idea can succeed. This skill assesses the market, not the idea itself.

Better to know the odds now. Authors deserve realistic expectations before investing months in writing.

Author intent shapes interpretation. A 5/10 viability score means different things to someone seeking income versus someone writing for legacy. Same data, different recommendations.

Claude does the analysis; human gathers the data Claude can't access. Claude performs qualitative research via web search. For quantitative data (BSR, prices, review counts), Claude provides a pre-filled spreadsheet and field guide—human gathers the numbers and brings them back.

Dependency Model

Standalone Mode: Book Concept Document only → pure commercial analysis. Claude flags that intellectual validation hasn't been done and recommends idea-validator if concerns arise.

Post-Validation Mode: Book Concept Document + Validation Report → integrated assessment. Combines intellectual merit with commercial viability for definitive pipeline gate.

Author Intent

Ask before researching. Author intent determines how to interpret the viability score.

Intent	Description	Score Interpretation
Income	Book must generate meaningful revenue	Score is decisive—low score means revise or kill
Authority	Position as expert, book is a credential	Moderate score acceptable if positioning is strong
Passion/Legacy	"This book needs to exist"	Low score = proceed with eyes open, not a blocker
Lead Generation	Funnel for services/consulting	Score less critical if book serves the funnel
Audience Service	Serving existing followers	Platform strength matters more than market size

Session Modes

Quick Assessment (single session):

Claude-only qualitative analysis via web search
Identifies competitors, positioning gaps, review themes
Produces preliminary viability assessment
No manual data gathering required
Best for: early-stage filtering, passion/legacy authors, authors with KDP experience

Deep Dive (multi-session):

Full qualitative analysis PLUS quantitative data
Claude provides pre-filled CSV with competitor URLs
Human gathers BSR, prices, review counts from Amazon
Claude analyzes completed data for full scorecard
Best for: income-focused authors, competitive categories, first-time KDP authors

Claude recommends mode based on author intent, validation status, category competitiveness, and KDP experience.

Session Flow

Starting Research

Ask for Book Concept Document (and Validation Report if available)
Read carefully, note the core thesis and target reader
Ask about author intent (Income/Authority/Passion/Lead Gen/Audience Service)
Recommend session mode with reasoning
User confirms mode
Proceed to research

Quick Assessment Flow

Search for competing books in the category
Analyze search results for:
- Competitor titles, authors, positioning
- Bestseller badges (indicator of demand)
- Publisher patterns (traditional vs. self-pub)
- Review themes from Goodreads/snippets
Identify market gaps from complaint patterns
Assess author credibility fit
Produce preliminary Market Research Report

Deep Dive Flow

Phase 1: Qualitative Research

Perform Quick Assessment steps
Identify 5-8 key competitors for quantitative analysis
Generate pre-filled competitor-analysis.csv with:
- Title, Author, Amazon URL (filled by Claude)
- BSR, prices, reviews, rating, pages, KU status (for human to fill)
Provide Amazon Field Guide (see references/amazon-field-guide.md)
Output CSV file for user

Phase 2: Human Data Gathering

User opens CSV in Excel/Sheets
User visits each Amazon URL (~10 min for 5-8 books)
User fills in the quantitative fields
User uploads completed CSV

Phase 3: Quantitative Analysis

Parse completed CSV
Calculate market indicators:
- Average BSR (demand signal)
- Price range and median
- Review velocity patterns
- KU saturation
Score each criterion
Produce full Market Research Report with viability scorecard

Ending Any Session

Summarize what was accomplished
Output all documents as files
State clearly what comes next
If mid-Deep-Dive: remind about CSV and field guide

Viability Scorecard

Criterion	Weight	What It Measures
Market Demand	25%	Are people buying books in this space? BSR patterns, bestseller signals
Review Landscape	15%	Review counts/ratings, gap signals from complaints
Competition Gap	15%	Differentiation opportunity, positioning white space
Author Credibility	15%	Does author's background match the claims?
Pricing Viability	10%	Can price competitively and maintain margin?
Author Platform	10%	Existing audience for launch velocity
Timing	5%	Trend momentum vs. evergreen stability
Production Feasibility	5%	Can this realistically be written?

Scoring: Each criterion rated 1-10. Weighted average produces overall score.

Score Interpretation

Score	Label	Meaning
7.0+	Strong Go	Market conditions favor success
5.5–6.9	Conditional Go	Viable with strategic adjustments
4.0–5.4	Revise	Significant concerns—reposition or reconsider
<4.0	Kill	Market conditions unfavorable

Intent Overlay:

Income authors: Follow score literally
Authority authors: Conditional Go sufficient if positioning is strong
Passion authors: Even Kill score = "proceed with eyes open"
Lead Gen authors: Platform fit matters more than raw score

Research Methods

Claude performs qualitative research via web search. See references/research-methods.md for detailed methodology.

What Claude CAN assess via search:

Competitor titles, authors, positioning
Bestseller badges (demand indicator)
Publisher patterns
Review themes and complaints
Market gaps and opportunities
Author credibility signals

What requires human data gathering:

Best Sellers Rank (BSR)
Exact prices (Kindle, paperback, hardcover)
Review counts and star ratings
Page counts
Kindle Unlimited status
Category rankings

For human data gathering, Claude provides a pre-filled CSV and the Amazon Field Guide from references/amazon-field-guide.md.

Market Research Report Structure

Use template from assets/templates/market-research-report.md.

Executive Summary — 2-3 sentences, overall assessment, recommendation
Author Intent & Interpretation — how intent shapes the recommendation
Viability Scorecard — weighted scores with reasoning
Competitive Landscape — top competitors, their positioning, gaps
Target Reader Analysis — refined reader persona, underserved needs
Positioning Recommendation — how to differentiate
Pricing Recommendation — based on market analysis
Title/Subtitle Direction — market-informed suggestions
Platform Fit Assessment — author's existing audience leverage
Timing Assessment — trend vs. evergreen
Key Risks — what could derail commercial success
Recommendation — Go / Conditional Go / Revise / Kill with reasoning

Handoff

To book-architect (if Go):

Market Research Report
Competitor Analysis (qualitative findings)
Positioning and differentiation guidance

Back to idea-validator (if concerns):

Flag if intellectual validation needed
Specific concerns about claims or credibility

Back to book-ideation (if Revise):

Specific repositioning suggestions
Reader persona refinements

Scope Boundaries

This skill assesses commercial viability, not:

Intellectual merit (that's idea-validator)
Book structure (that's book-architect)
Writing quality (that's the editing pipeline)

Commercial viability is necessary but not sufficient. A book can be commercially viable but intellectually weak, or intellectually strong but commercially doomed.