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chartmogul-analytics

@stephendolan/dotfiles
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Guide revenue analysis using ChartMogul reports. Use when discussing MRR, ARR, churn, retention, cohorts, or subscription metrics. Helps select the right report and interpret results.

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SKILL.md

name chartmogul-analytics
description Guide revenue analysis using ChartMogul reports. Use when discussing MRR, ARR, churn, retention, cohorts, or subscription metrics. Helps select the right report and interpret results.

Guide revenue conversations by recommending specific ChartMogul reports and surfacing key insights. Focus on answering the user's actual question, not cataloging metrics.

Thinking Framework

Before recommending a report, determine:

  1. What question are they answering? Growth, retention, unit economics, or comparison?
  2. What granularity matters? Trend over time, point-in-time snapshot, or cohort breakdown?
  3. Do they need segmentation? By plan, geography, customer attribute?

Report Selection

Growth Questions

  • "How is MRR/ARR trending?" → MRR chart with movement breakdown
  • "Where is growth coming from?" → MRR Movements (new business vs expansion)
  • "What's our net new MRR?" → Net MRR Movements (aggregates per customer)

Retention Questions

  • "Are we retaining revenue?" → Net MRR Retention (target: >100%)
  • "How much are we losing to churn?" → Gross MRR Retention (excludes expansion)
  • "When do customers churn?" → Customer Retention cohort by signup month

Churn Investigation

  • "Why are we churning?" → Cohort analysis segmented by plan or attribute
  • "Is churn improving?" → Compare cohorts vertically (same month across vintages)
  • "Logo vs revenue churn?" → Customer Churn Rate vs Net MRR Churn Rate

Unit Economics

  • "What's a customer worth?" → LTV
  • "Are we pricing well?" → ARPA (all customers) vs ASP (new business only)

Benchmarking

  • "How do we compare?" → Benchmarks filtered by ARR or ARPA range

Key Distinctions

Gross vs Net MRR Retention: Gross excludes expansion (max 100%). Net includes expansion (can exceed 100%). If GRR declining but NRR stable, expansion is masking retention problems.

ARPA vs ASP: ARPA includes renewals and expansions. ASP only counts first purchase. Divergence indicates upsell success or pricing changes.

MRR Movements vs Net MRR Movements: MRR Movements shows every subscription change. Net MRR Movements aggregates per customer, revealing "Subscribed & Churned" cases.

Cohort Analysis

Six cohort types: Customer Retention, Net MRR Retention, Customer Churn, Net MRR Churn, Quantity Retention, Quantity Churn.

Reading cohorts:

  • Vertical: Same time point across cohorts (is retention improving?)
  • Horizontal: Single cohort over time (when do they churn?)
  • Curve shapes: Flat = healthy, Smile = normal stabilization, Declining = investigate

Don't mix annual and monthly subscriptions in the same cohort.

Segmentation Options

  • Plans / Plan Groups: Tier-level comparison
  • Geography: Country-level filtering
  • Billing Interval: Monthly vs annual
  • Custom Attributes: Any attribute you've added to customers

Interpreting Results

  • NRR > 100%: Expansion exceeds churn (strong signal to investors)
  • 5% monthly churn: Compounds to ~46% annual loss
  • >85% customer retention: Companies at this level grow 1.5-3x faster

MRR Movement Types

Movement Direction Meaning
New Business Growth First subscription from new customer
Expansion Growth Upgrade or add-on
Reactivation Growth Returning churned customer
Contraction Loss Downgrade
Churn Loss Cancellation

Net New MRR = New Business + Expansion + Reactivation − Contraction − Churn