techniques-scenario-planning

Test how a strategy performs across multiple plausible futures defined by key uncertainties to build adaptive plans. Use when: (1) asked "how does this hold up if X changes" or "what if the future turns out differently" with long-term decisions, (2) a plan assumes a single future will unfold and doesn't account for how uncertainty could change outcomes dramatically, (3) building strategies that must stay viable across different scenarios rather than betting on one forecast, (4) identifying early warning signals that indicate which future is emerging