Dynasty Fantasy Football Strategy

Overview

Provide expert guidance on dynasty fantasy football strategy, player valuation, roster construction, and trade analysis using research-backed frameworks and methodologies. Apply domain expertise to help evaluate trades, identify market inefficiencies, construct competitive rosters, and make data-driven dynasty management decisions.

When to Use This Skill

Trigger this skill for queries involving:

• Player valuation questions: "How should I value this player?" "What's a fair trade value?" "Is this player overvalued?"
• Trade analysis: "Should I accept this trade?" "How do I evaluate this trade offer?" "What's a win-win trade structure?"
• Roster construction: "Should I rebuild or compete?" "How do I identify my competitive window?" "What's optimal positional allocation?"
• Draft strategy: "What's this draft pick worth?" "Should I trade picks or players?" "When should I target RBs vs WRs?"
• Aging curves & timing: "When should I sell this RB?" "Is this WR past his prime?" "What's the optimal exit point?"
• Market analysis: "Is this player a buy-low candidate?" "What are common market inefficiencies?" "How do I identify mispriced assets?"
• Asset management: "How do I value future picks?" "What's the quantity premium in consolidation trades?" "Should I cut this player or hold for dead cap reasons?"

Note: For questions involving statistical modeling, machine learning, or simulation design, consider also using the ff-ml-modeling or ff-statistical-methods skills.

Core Capabilities

1. Player Valuation Frameworks

Apply research-backed valuation methodologies to assess player worth:

Value over Replacement (VoR)

• Calculate VoR using formula: Player Projected Points - Replacement Level Points
• Set replacement baselines using worst starter method, man-games approach, or draft position method
• Enable cross-positional comparisons by standardizing value relative to position-specific baselines

Value-Based Drafting (VBD)

• Prioritize players with highest VoR regardless of position
• Identify steep "drop off" positions to target early
• Exploit positions with gentle declines by deferring to later rounds

Sustainable vs Fluky Performance

• Identify touchdown regression candidates using xTD and TDOE metrics
• Emphasize volume-based metrics (target share, opportunity share, snap count, WOPR)
• Distinguish sustainable opportunity-driven production from TD-luck-driven scoring

Market Inefficiencies

• Spot injury overreactions creating buying opportunities
• Recognize offseason pretty roster syndrome (youth overvaluation)
• Identify recency bias in player valuations
• Find gaps between model projections and market consensus (KTC, DynastyProcess)

Prospect Profiling

• Apply Dominator Rating thresholds (30%+ = elite, 20-30% = good, <20% = concern)
• Evaluate breakout age (RB <20, WR <21, TE <23)
• Incorporate NFL draft capital as signal for opportunity

Reference: references/valuation_frameworks.md for detailed formulas, thresholds, and examples.

2. Roster Construction Strategies

Guide roster-building decisions based on competitive timeline:

Win-Now Strategy

• Prioritize proven producers over unproven rookies
• Target consistent production with track records
• Hold draft picks to add youth and maintain roster rejuvenation
• Mix in younger players for long-term viability

Rebuild Strategy

• Accumulate draft picks across multiple classes (picks are lifeblood)
• Focus on 2-3 foundational pieces (QB core, elite WRs under 26)
• Avoid RBs during rebuild (shelf life doesn't align with 2-3 year window)
• Build through WRs for longer careers and stable value trajectories

Competitive Window Analysis

• Identify typical 2-3 year competitive windows
• Time RB acquisitions to align with competitive window opening
• Balance present opportunity vs future flexibility
• Reassess window every 4-6 weeks during season

Positional Allocation

• QB: Secure higher-level QB early (Superflex = most valuable position)
• RB: "Get in early, exit before decline" - sell after Year 4
• WR: Patient with rookies, best foundation for dynasty rosters
• TE: Expect sophomore breakouts (98.5% PPR increase Year 2)

Reference: references/roster_construction.md for win-now vs rebuild tactics, roster depth guidelines, and draft philosophies.

3. Trade Evaluation & Optimization

Systematically evaluate dynasty trades using multi-objective framework:

Multi-Objective Analysis Assess trades across 5 dimensions:

1. Current Year Value: Impact on starting lineup for this season
2. Future Value: Outlook 1-3 years from now
3. Competitive Window Alignment: Does trade match timeline (contending/rebuilding)?
4. Positional Scarcity: Trading for/away from scarce positions (elite TEs, every-down RBs)?
5. Market Timing: Buying low or selling high based on value trends?

Win-Win Trade Structures

• Identify complementary needs (target teams weak where you're strong)
• Use even swap strategy (2-for-2 trades benefit both sides)
• Account for team timelines (rebuilders trade RBs for WRs; contenders do opposite)
• Apply quantity premium (30-50% overpay when consolidating to elite assets)

Draft Pick Valuation

• First round picks: ~45% hit rate, highest value pre-NFL Draft
• Second round picks: 22% hit rate, 69% miss rate
• Third round+: <15% hit rate ("dart throws")
• Future picks: Discount to 80% of current year equivalent
• NFL draft capital matters: High picks indicate opportunity and team faith

Manager Profiling

• Assess risk tolerance (safety vs upside chasers)
• Identify position preferences and roster construction philosophies
• Find managers unaware of their competitive window (arbitrage opportunities)
• Distinguish active traders (receptive to creative structures) vs passive builders

Reference: references/trade_evaluation.md for crowdsourced valuation tools (KTC, DynastyProcess), quantity premiums, and trade evaluation framework.

Asset: assets/trade_evaluation_template.md - Systematic template for evaluating trades across all dimensions.

4. Aging Curves & Timing

Apply position-specific aging patterns to buy/sell decisions:

Running Backs

• Career arc: 88% baseline rookie year, decline below baseline Year 7, spread dramatically Year 8
• Optimal exit: After Year 4 (before Year 7 decline)
• Shortest shelf-life; sell while value is highest

Wide Receivers

• Career arc: 74% baseline rookie year, peak Year 5, maintain into late 20s
• Be patient Years 2-3 for sophomore surge
• Hold value longer, age more gracefully than RBs

Tight Ends

• Career arc: 33% baseline rookie year, 94% baseline Year 2 (98.5% PPR increase)
• Don't give up on rookie TEs; expect Year 2 jump
• Maintain through Year 7, don't decline significantly until age 30

Quarterbacks

• Career arc: Efficiency rises age 25+, peak ages 28-33, many produce into mid-to-late 30s
• Most stable position for aging
• Safe to roster older QBs for win-now pushes (especially Superflex)

Mortality Table Framework (Harstad)

• Alternative view: Players don't gradually decline; they maintain or "fall off a cliff"
• Focus on survival probability rather than gradual erosion
• 50/50 shot at 100% production vs 0% (not 50% of typical production)

Reference: references/aging_curves.md for detailed career arcs, exit strategies, and age-adjusted valuation framework.

Workflow for Trade Analysis

Follow this process when evaluating dynasty trades:

Step 1: Gather Trade Details

• List all assets exchanged (players, picks)
• Identify trade partner's competitive timeline (contending/rebuilding)
• Confirm your own timeline

Step 2: Calculate Raw Value

• Use KTC, DynastyProcess, or other consensus tools for baseline values
• Sum total value given vs received
• Apply quantity premium (30-50%) if consolidating or breaking apart assets

Step 3: Multi-Objective Assessment

• Current year impact: Does this improve starting lineup this season?
• Future value: How does this affect 1-3 year outlook?
• Window alignment: Does trade match my timeline?
• Positional scarcity: Am I addressing gaps or creating new ones?
• Market timing: Am I buying low / selling high?

Step 4: Aging Curve Analysis

• Check career year and age for all key assets
• Identify cliff risks (RBs Year 5+, WRs 30+, TEs 30+)
• Reference aging_curves.md for position-specific benchmarks

Step 5: Sustainability Check

• For key assets received, check for TD regression risk (xTD vs actual TDs)
• Verify volume indicators: target/carry share, snap %, opportunity share
• Prioritize opportunity-driven performance over TD-luck

Step 6: Win-Win Verification

• Does this trade help trade partner along their dimensions?
• Is this mutually beneficial given different timelines/needs?
• If not win-win, revise or prepare counter-offer

Step 7: Make Decision

• Accept: Strong trade improving roster along key dimensions
• Counter: Close but needs adjustment
• Decline: Does not align with strategy/timeline/value

Tool: Use assets/trade_evaluation_template.md to systematically document this analysis.

Workflow for Roster Construction Planning

Follow this process when building or reshaping rosters:

Step 1: Determine Timeline

• Assess current roster age, draft capital, competitive position
• Decide: Win-now, retool, or rebuild?

Step 2: Execute Mode-Specific Tactics

• Win-now: Proven producers + draft picks for youth influx
• Rebuild: Accumulate picks + foundational WRs + avoid RBs
• Retool: Mix of young WRs + one elite QB/TE to anchor

Step 3: Positional Allocation

• Superflex: Prioritize QB depth
• All formats: Build WR depth as portfolio foundation
• Time RB acquisitions to competitive window
• Be patient with TE breakouts (expect Year 2 surge)

Step 4: Continuous Evaluation

• Reassess competitive window every 4-6 weeks
• Adjust tactics as roster ages or improves
• Balance present opportunity vs future flexibility

Identifying Data Requirements

When analyzing dynasty questions, identify what data is needed:

For Player Valuation:

• Projected points by player/position
• Historical performance (3+ years for aging curves)
• Opportunity metrics (target share, snap %, carry share)
• Expected vs actual touchdowns (xTD, TDOE)
• Market values (KTC, DynastyProcess)

For Trade Analysis:

• Current roster composition (yours and partner's)
• Starting lineup requirements
• Projected points for current season + future years
• Player ages and career years
• Draft pick holdings

For Roster Construction:

• Full roster with ages and positions
• Competitive standings
• Draft capital (current and future picks)
• Positional depth charts
• Franchise transaction history

For Aging Analysis:

• Player age and NFL experience years
• Position-specific benchmarks
• Career usage (touches, targets)
• Historical performance trends

Integrating with Other Skills

Complement with ff-ml-modeling when:

• Building predictive models for player projections
• Feature engineering for valuation models
• Clustering players into tiers
• Training regression models for value estimation

Complement with ff-statistical-methods when:

• Running Monte Carlo simulations for trade scenarios
• Performing variance analysis for regression-to-mean
• Applying GAMs for non-linear aging curves
• Conducting hypothesis tests on performance trends

Parallel Execution: When requests touch multiple domains (e.g., "Build a player valuation model using VoR and regression analysis"), invoke relevant skills in parallel for comprehensive guidance.

Best Practices

Emphasize Volume over Touchdowns

• "Volume is king in fantasy football"
• Target share, snap %, opportunity share are leading indicators
• TDs regress: +TDOE declines 86%, -TDOE improves 93%

Apply Timeline Discipline

• Don't hold aging RBs while rebuilding
• Don't hold distant picks while contending
• Align every move with competitive window

Understand Market Dynamics

• Buy during injury overreactions
• Sell during offseason hype (pretty roster syndrome)
• Exploit recency bias
• Find model vs market gaps

Use Multi-Objective Framework

• Best trades are win-win along different dimensions
• Contender gets win-now assets, rebuilder gets future value
• Avoid zero-sum thinking; find complementary needs

Respect Aging Curves

• RBs: Exit Year 4, before Year 7 cliff
• WRs: Patient through Years 2-3, hold through late 20s
• TEs: Don't give up Year 1, expect Year 2 breakout
• QBs: Safe into mid-30s, premium in Superflex

Avoid Common Pitfalls

• Overvaluing unproven rookies during win-now
• Drafting RBs early during multi-year rebuild
• Ignoring quantity premium in consolidation trades
• Chasing touchdowns instead of opportunity
• Making lopsided offers that aren't mutually beneficial

References

All detailed research-backed frameworks are available in:

• references/valuation_frameworks.md - VoR, VBD, sustainable performance, market inefficiencies, prospect profiling
• references/roster_construction.md - Win-now vs rebuild, competitive windows, positional allocation, draft philosophies
• references/trade_evaluation.md - Crowdsourced tools, win-win structures, multi-objective optimization, draft pick valuation
• references/aging_curves.md - Position-specific career arcs, exit strategies, mortality tables, age-adjusted valuations

Assets

• assets/trade_evaluation_template.md - Systematic template for documenting and analyzing dynasty trades across all evaluation dimensions